With the absence of
President Obama from the APEC and ASEAN summits in Bali and Brunei this week due
to the fiscal stalemate in Washington, the annual “American season” in Asia has
taken on a more negative note. The
mainstream media, as to be expected, has portrayed the President’s absence as
an indication of U.S. weakness, especially when compared with the presence of
Chinese president Xi Jinping (nevermind that the disputes between China and
several ASEAN members in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea remain
unresolved, of course). As discussed in
the previous post, the President’s absence also threatens any imminent
agreement in the Trans Pacific Partnership talks.
Thus, the Obama
administration is under pressure, real or perceived, to do something to repair
the diplomatic damage caused by this month’s domestic political drama. Let me
suggest a repackaged old idea – a special Presidential summit with ASEAN
leaders.
During his term, President
George W. Bush had proposed a special US-ASEAN summit to be held at his
Crawford ranch. The summit never took
place because of issues related to the then-military regime in Myanmar, but the
motivation, a personal and direct approach by the President, was much
appreciated in ASEAN.
The US could use the boost
accorded by a special ASEAN summit.
President Obama does not have a ranch, but he does have the advantage of
time and place, in the upcoming Thanksgiving and Christmas vacation season and
his birth state of Hawaii, respectively.
A special ASEAN summit during this time would express the President’s
deep and personal commitment to the US relationship with ASEAN, and would be
much appreciated by ASEAN leaders. It
would also present an opportunity to show that the US remains engaged in the
region, particularly if both the Democratic and Republican leadership could be
enticed to come to Hawaii (which, given the weather in Washington in November
and December, might not be that difficult).
Furthermore, the US could offer a Hawaii summit to conclude the TPP
talks, with non-ASEAN TPP parties being invited to a separate session.
All of this, of course, will
depend on two major outcomes.
First, the President and
Congress will need to resolve the financial standoff. This is easier said than done, but
(hopefully) the impending pressure of resolving the debt limit by October 17
will help focus minds.
Second, the TPP talks need
to be resolved if there is to be a special TPP summit. That will depend on the former, as TPP
parties will be reluctant to sign off on a deal that will not be approved by
the US Congress without major revision.
President Obama’s absence
from Bali and Brunei this week is a major stumble for the US, but one that can
be remedied by a Thanksgiving or Christmas summit. However, the US needs to get its domestic
political affairs in order before this can happen.
